16 February 2018

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - And the Wind Began to Howl - Comex Option Expiration Next Thursday

"He explored everywhere the seats of power,
and learnt of everything the sum of wisdom.
He saw what was secret, discovered what was hidden,
he brought back a tale of before the Deluge.
He came a far road, was weary, found peace,
and set all his labours on a tablet of stone.

See the tablet-box of cedar, release its clasps of bronze!
Lift the lid of its secret,
pick up the tablet of lapis lazuli
and read out the travails of Gilgamesh, all that he went through."

Epic of Gilgamesh I1–28

"Now he had learnt to see the great, the eternal, the infinite in everything; and therefore – to see it and revel in its contemplation – he naturally threw away the telescope through which he had hitherto been gazing over men’s heads, and joyfully feasted his eyes on the ever-changing, eternally great, unfathomable and infinite life around him.  And the closer he looked, the more tranquil and happier he was.  The awful question that had shattered all his mental edifices in the past – the question why? no longer existed for him."

Leo Tolstoi, War and Peace

The quotes above are from a lecture by Andrew R. George that I was watching today to escape the boredom and folly of the markets. 

Stocks had a wide ranging day, with the SP futures doing the heavy lifting.

But alas, the markets did not seem to want to go into the US' three day weekend holding the longer side, and so stocks went out lower to unchanged.

Gold and silver lost some ground, largely because of a relief rally in the US Dollar, which took back the losses from yesterday.

There will be an option expiration for the precious metals on the Comex next Thursday, 22nd February.

Monday is the Presidents' Day holiday in the US, so the markets will be closed.

It was a drizzly, sleepy day here with temperatures still hovering in the mid 50's. It is supposed to get much colder for the weekend, with 2 to 6" of snow forecast for Saturday evening.

Please remember to feed 'the least of these,' especially during the harsh winter weather.

Have a pleasant weekend.

15 February 2018

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Among Us

"Therefore, they must eat the bitter fruit of living their own way,
choking on their own schemes.
For fools turn away from the Lord to death.
Fools are destroyed by their own complacency."

Proverbs 1:31-32

Stocks were higher, going out near the highs. As I said, the anxiety of the big recent decline in stocks would be quickly forgotten.

Frothy is as frothy does. And this speculative excess will likely continue until stocks hit a hard wall, and collapse.

Gold and silver pushed higher on continuing dollar weakness. Uncle Buck was flirting with 88.50 at the close.

The economic data is decidedly mixed, and not all that bullish.

Have a pleasant evening.

14 February 2018

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Hearts and Ashes

"Owe nothing to anyone, except for your obligation to love one another. For if you love the other, you will fulfill the requirements of God’s law."

Romans 13:8

"For God so loved the world that he gave his only begotten Son, that whoever believes in him shall not perish but have eternal life."

John 3:16

Stocks backed up and then took off after the CPI data came in 'higher than expected' this morning.

At first glance that seems counter-intuitive. A higher CPI will give the Fed more street cred in raising rates, which is what triggered this whole stock market correction in the first place right?

A closer look at the CPI data, the core CPI (ex food and energy), and especially the last month's revision, shows that at 0.3% core CPI did come in higher than the consensus forecast of economists at 0.2%.

However, in the month prior, that reading which had been 0.3% was revised significantly lower to 0.1%.

So as you can see, the CPI was much ado about not so very much. And stocks, looking at the data behind the headlines, took off like a scalded cat higher.

Why didn't any of the financial TV spokesmodels catch on to this rather glaring discrepancy with the headlines that they were reading. One can only wonder.

We can also see on the chart that the SP 500 and NDX futures have now retraced roughly 50% of the correction which they recently endured. Now we will see what this rebound is made of.

Gold and silver were strong today, largely off further Dollar weakness, as Uncle Buck continued taking the gas pipe down. I will post the updated Dollar chart later on.

So here we are, anticipating even more data later this week.

But the foundations of the equity markets are still rather flimsily made, and themselves standing loosely in sand.

Have a pleasant evening.

13 February 2018

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - CPI Tomorrow

"When you pray, do not be like the hypocrites,
who love to stand and loudly pray in their churches and on street corners
so that others may see them.
Amen, I say to you,
they have already received their reward.
But when you pray, go to a quiet room,
close the door, and pray to your Father in secret.
And your Father who sees all things will repay you."

Matt 6:5-8

And so today is already Mardi Gras, or Fat Tuesday.

And that means tomorrow is Ash Wednesday, the beginning of the 40 days of the Lenten vigil.

The queen and I attended a Mardi Gras celebration in New Orleans one year in the 1990's. I forget exactly when. It was for a corporate event at the Fairmont Hotel, right next to the route of the parade. I think I still have some plastic coins stashed in my desk somewhere as a memento.

And it is also St. Valentine's Day.  So don't forget that one guys.  I sent roses to some of the ladies who were of special help and comfort while the queen was having in-home hospice last year, a dark and concerning period of life.  They were like angels, and their unselfish kindness made a deep impression.  Some of them bordered on what I like to call heroic virtue.

It only takes a moment to say thank you to someone who deserves it. We are so often quick to criticize and find fault, but so ungrateful for the many, many little things that others do for us. And when we thank them we start to note the little good things, instead of swelling on a bunch of silly inconveniences.

No matter how difficult life may seem, God's angels are always about to help, as well as His tender mercies and consolations, if we are open to seeing them. God is always there, always listening. And when one door closes, another door opens.

The Dollar continued to go lower today, down to 89.60.

This had a positive effect on gold and silver.

Stocks had an upwards bias, but cautiously.

Tomorrow we will be getting the latest Consumer Price Index data. This is important because markets are concerned about the pace of interest rate increases by the easy money Fed, which is at the root of this latest financial asset bubble.

There will also be the Producer Price Index and the Em-Im prices data later this week.

And so we wait, with bated breath.

Just like we are still waiting for any genuine, significant evidence of 'Russian meddling' in the US elections, despite the continuous hysteria from the media.

Have a pleasant evening.